captioning sponsored by macneil/lehrer productions >> woodruff: good evening and welcome to this special edition of the pbs newshour. it's the beginning of the night of election 2012 coverage here on pbs. i'm judy wood rough. >> ifill: and i'm gwen ifill. the candidates are finally finished racing across the country. the campaign ads and phone calls have stopped interrupting your evenings. millions of americans have voted many of them waiting in line for hours. now we wait to find out who will be the next president of the united states. incumbent barack obama or challenger mitt romney. >> woodruff: it is just after 7:00 eastern time. polls are beginning to close in

the east and the south. t,t fact, s states closed just a moment ago at theag the hour. using exit polling data and surveys of early voters, the associated press is beginning to project a winner in a number of states. we're going to be watching for that as soon as we get it. i'm told, gwen, we do haveoneon call. the networks, two television networks are projecting the state of kentucky will go for mitt romney which is not a surprise. a state that john mccain won four years ago. >> ifill: not a big surprise. all of these results will-jump-starting the all-important electoral college count. 270 is the magic numberne candidate has to reach to become the next president. right now the associated press is predicting nothing because we don't know yet what is going to happen with those electoral votes. but we're waiting. >> woodruff: i just now am being told, gwen, and this information is comingnn as we're sitting here. the sta of indiana has been

projected. mitt romney is projected the winner in the state of indiana. that is a state barackbama won narrow w but he did win it four years ago. but this is not a surprise. it was expected to go for republican. >> ifill: we're watching much bmore to see what happens in indiana in the senate race. we're hearing that vermont, the toesident once again in the green mountain state, the networks are projecting thates barack obama wil win in vermont. >> woodruff: now we'll have complete analysias was watch these calls w and projections ce in. we'll have completena asisna and reaction to the latest returns just ahead on the pbsnd newshou. major funding for the pbs newshour has been provided by:

>> c is a uvers languae. when i w in an accident i wac2 worried the healtcare stem c2e lauall its own witunited health care i gotot helthat fit mlife, c2formion on mphone, coection to ctorwho getet where i'from, tools to eime wh mcare m cost.t. i never miss . >> wee more tn 78,0 peoplec2 looking out for more tn 70 llion ericans. that's health in numbers.ed heak >> bnsf railway. >> and by the bill and melinda gates foundation. dedicated to the idea that all people deserve the chance to live a healthy, productive life.

and with the ongoing support of these institutions and foundations. and... friends of the newshour. and... this program was made possible by the corporation for public broadcasting. and by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. thank you. back to this special vote 2012 edition of the pbs newshour. from the victory rallies tonight it's been a long road that now appears to have finally reached its end. the voters have spoken. we'll be reporting and analyzing what they had to say in this hour and thrghout the evening on most pbs stations. here to help us do that are syndicated columnist mark shields and "new york times"el columnist david brooks. david brooks, are you shockd about indiana? >> no.

no, there was no way barack obama was going to carry that. there were two states he carried last time that were a bit tbreekish. indiana was super freakish if i can go back to the 1970s. >> ifill: a good way to start the night. >> and north carolina was less freakish but still unusual. now north carolina is a swing state. that's in part because the demographics have shifted so much in north carolina. those were the two states he carried that will be uphill this time. >> woodruff: mark, what happened in indiana though? the president was campaigning there very late in the game in 2008. what changed on the ground and what changed with him? >> well, two things changed. first the that the president has by hisrians like richard and michael would say, the favorite for the election is he wasn't challenging the nomination for his own party. as a result he never developed any kind of a primary apparatus in te lot of these states. they went directly into the states that david identified tass swing states. they never did anything. in indiana in 2008ie had a

knock-down dragout with hillary clint who won the primary. after a long fight in which the bakke folks opened up 48 state offices, had 210 hired people and they were just on the running for the general election and they outspent john mccain. they could spend money there ini indiana in 2008. mccain was stretched thin. he was defending more territory. you know, it was a great time. that coergence of ideal circumstances was not recreated in 2012 and was never expected to be. that doesn't come as ae surpri. >> ifill: you talk about the ground game, mark. that's really intere.ing. i wonder how much that is real. last week everybody was talking g.about that. each side could explain why they were better at it than the other. >> i think it's a bit like t money where if one side had a huge vantage over thegeother, then you could say it would make a difference but when both sides are pretty good at it or have a at of money, then any

difference is probably going be marginal. i think you could argue the democrats have a marginally better ground game than the reblicans but i sort of think to make a bigifference in a state, i don't see it. >> woodruff: the obama campaign, you talk to them, they saync thy refined the ground game down to a science. a museum piece. its something that is so perfect that nobody else could replicate it. >> i don't think there's any question in 2004 the republican ground game was the key to the turnout in states like ohio which esident bush did win against john kerry int 2004. a largely by organizing and generating great support among evangelical christians on the same-sex marriage issue. i don't think anybody would argue that the obama campaign has a far better ground game than does the romney campaign. now the question is, do the republicans in aggregate. you kn, the obama campaign has

been organized for this one purpose all the way through. just think about it. the republicans did not know that mitt romney would be the nominee until six months ago. the obama, folks... >> you mean the outside groups that are helping mitt romney as well. >> yes. ifill: just to remind everybody the networks have projected winners in three races in indiana, kentucky and vermont. now we'll go to chicago where our colleague ray swawrers and hopefully we'll be joined by oargaret warner in boston. ray is at the presidential candidate nigh headquarters in hicago. ray, what is the sense right now? when we talk about this ground game issue, what does the campaign say about what they have over the romney campaign ic terms of ground game? >> they said this time instead of sending volunteers and sending field workers from state to state, they concentrated much more heavily on using people that people know. i mean it sounds kind of obvious. but all the research shows that

when someone you know talks about you... talks to youatbout casting the vote in the first place or voting for the person you prefer, that has a lot more impact than somebody showing up at your door with paperwork, a leaflet or a pitch for a candidate. so they've put much more emphasis on havingb people work their own neighborhoods this time around. and they say they have hit their marks, that they are getting out their numbers. and so far so good. gwen? >> ifill: well, ray, i'm also curious. you're standing there at the mccormack convention complex there in chicago. what's going on there? there's not a lot of people behind you yet. it's early yet. but is there a big fireworks explosion which is planned for the night, a big party? what's going on? > well, we are in sort of a central location. the obama family house is a couple of miles to the south of where i'm standing. all the big wigs, elected

officials are gathered at a hotel a couple of miles to the north of where i'm standing. they haven't yet opened up the doors for the general public, for the people who will be coming to what they hope is a victory rally tonight. this is really the calm before the storm. even campaign people aren't very much in evidence at this point in the gape. >> woodruff: ray, at this point we know that the polls in virginia have closed at 7:00. nobody is calling that. nobody is projecting that because it is expected to be very close. what are the obama people -- if you've been able to talk to them why do they think they still have a shot in virginia when the romney people have been expressing so much confidence about it? >> suarez: one interesting thing about their take on virginia is the consistency of the narrative. even during a week to ten days ago when some people were saying that romney was ahead by a little but it was still ahead, they were confidently and steadily ying the same thing

about their confidence in their ground game that they were going to intain what they felt was already a lead in virginia all the way through thet closing of the polls. now we've got to wait for some actual numbers to start putting some meat on their bones, whether in fact their numbers were telling them the truth, whether in fact that confidence was justifie >> ifill: ray, you hang in there in chicago tonight. we'll be checking in with you of many different occasions as the night goes on. hopefully we'll also be talking to margaret warner when we're able to get here. we're told we have margaret. >> woodruff: margaret, are you there at romney headquarters in boston. >> warner: i am here, judy, yes. oodruff: margaret, i don't know if you were able to hear ray. we were saying that the polls have closed in the state of virginia, a state expected to be close. no one is projectg a winner yet but why is virjenia so important to romney? they've clearly put a huge amount of emphasis and energy into that state.

>> warner: judy, they think virginia and the virginia returns are absolutely ucial to them winning the whole ballgame tonight. that is, one advisor said to me we not only have to win but we have to win it by two or three points. if we win it but just in a squeaker or if we lose it, he said, then it's looking so much better than wisconsin or ohio, for example, much more less pennsylvania, that if we don't do pretty well in virginia, it's going to be very tough in those other states. so they see it really as the fir domino that theyom must, must do well here. well there. >> woodruff: that's interesting that they're being candid about that. margaret, more broadly, what are they counting on tonight because, as we know, going into the evening, the polls were not in a number of these swing states were not showing a significant lead for governor romney. what is it that they're counting on? >> warner: they are counting on two things, judy. they are first of all counting

on thfact that barack obama, president obama in very few polls has hit 50% or t above. they think that the undecided, the late independent undecideds are are going to break their way. that... if that doesn't happe for them, they know they'll fall short. i mean they've essentially acknowledged that. the second thing we were counting on was what they believe is much bigger enthusiasm among romney supporters and republicans for their candidate than among the democrats for president obama. >> ifill: margaret, this is gwen. when they begin to figure this out by the end of the evening, have theyargeted certain races? we know virginia is a big deal. it's east coast, a fairly early closing time. ohio a big deal fairly early closing time. are there other states that they or u are are watching tonight to find out whether balloons drop atar romney headquarters people get a little depressed? >> warner: well, at 8:00 obviously if north carolina, if

they didn't do extremely well in north c carolina, again, win comfortably there, that would be a bad sign to them. 8:00 is also florida. but they do not expect early returns but that's another state. they feel they have to do extremely well if they're going be able to chip b in to states likehi wisconsin, like iowa whih doesn't close until 10:00 eastern time. so i would say these early southern stes are... they are particularly watching. the advantage of virginia from their persesctive in terms of prognosticating is that virginia has a history of being fairly rapid in getting its returns reported especially from northern virginia which is where at the very least the romney camp feels they have to cut into what might be a barack obama lead there. >> ifill: margaret warner in boston. stay warm if possible. we'll be talking to you all night long. and we have one more projection.

this is in a u.s. senate race in vermont. bernie sanders the independent who caucuses withct the democras in vermont has bin re-elected. before we look at some ofthe initial results in the senate races a word aboutth our projeions. the newshour doesn't call any race. it is our policy to report results as projected by the associated press. we'll also tell you when two television networks have calledo a winner in a state if the a.p. has not done so. now we'll go to geoffrey brown for more on these and other congressional matters. >> brown: thanks, gwen. i'm with, here with political editor christina bell and tony and stuart rothenberg, editor of the rothenberg political report. so if we start to look at the senate, they were talking about early for mitt romney on the presidential side. stu, that is not the case in this important senate race. >> we thought it might be when we first looked back months ago. >> brown: you mean months ago. richard murdoch ended up

defeating richard lugar long-time senatorick lugar in a rathi bitter nasty republican, an ideological racea where murdoch attacked lugar for not only being too liberal on questions of guns and national security but also not hingn ang residence in the state, not living in the state. murdoch seem to be the clear favorite to win the seat to hold on the seat for the republicans but stumble after stumble he looked sometimes unwilling to compromise, angry, bitter. and i think itorked on voters. then more recently we had a o controversy on rape a abortion and whether it was a misstatement or misinterpreted, whatever you want to say. it has hurt him in the polls. joe donley is a credible candidate but frankly would not have won a u.s. senate race in a normal year like this. >> when you look at the early returns that we're seeing in that indiana senate race it's basically tied up. very few precincts are reporting yet. you think that mitt romney y na by a largeindi

enough margin that the a.p. was able to call it so early or two networks were able to call it so early.ne that says a lot about people splitting their vote, people that just don't find murdoch tenable. that goes to a larger theme for this year because it's an isue of reproductive rights, women's issues. a lot of the democrats are really honing in on that in multiple races. we'll talk more about missouri tonight, and what you're seeing at the national level. the president has been trying to target women and particularly unmarried younger women. >> let me just adhere. i don't believe this is an issue about abortion. i don't think murdoch is losing because he's pro-life and he's not pro-choice. he is losing because he came off as insensitive out of the political mainstrea as in missouri with toddtr akin, his problem is not that he's pro-life. it's that he seemed insensitive. that is a problem we've seen insensitivity but also

ideological extremism. that's what mark and david were talking about earlier in states two years ago. this is a significantroblem republicans. >> important to point out that donley is a pro-life democrat in that race. these are issues. >> brown: it's degrees. exact y. te that isther s closeerbut way too early on the senate race but anotoer big one is virginia. >> virginia senate is one of the most fascinating races. it's been a toss-up from the very beginning. it's one of the seats ther needd congress or senator jim web's retiring. two former governors, tim kaine, ggeorge allen both running. this has been very much a national race with national money flowing to the race. 51.5 million spent from outsidem group. $30 million from the candidates alean. tim kaine was obama's democratic national committee chair. george allen is the former senator from this seat this has been a fascinating dynamic as bh parties try to tie their fate to the top of the ticket. we got a few early exit polls

lookg at virginia that suggest that the president is performing fairly well with women vighti now. 52%. this is one of the early waves of these exit polls we've been talking about, but it suggests that that could help him in virginia but romney is winning with independent voters in virginia. be a real key what we're looking at all night long. >> brown: what are you looking aate? >> virginia is always about geography in part. northern virginia which years ago was a small part of the state. now more than half of the state's votes come out of northern virginia. even northern virginia is more interesting. it's older suburbs that have grown. louden county and the like. we'll look to see how well george allen and tim kaine do in the northern virginia suburbs and whether t se conservative voters downstate, outstate come out very strongly for george allen. the third piece of the puzzle african-americans both in the northern virginia subsebs but particularly down in c sesapeake and norfolk and down there in the stern part of the state.st >> brown: remind us sort of setting the larger tble here. in the senate side. what's the context? who has what at this point going

in. >> democrats are playing defensr in a lot of seats. it's 23 seats that the democrats are running in this year. 10 seats that the republicans are defending. it's just more turf for them to have to spend money in and to ve good candidates in. there are few states that were particularly trending red for a long time but they have senators representing theso they weren't t necessarily competitie until now we're looking at north dakota, you obviously have nebraska. this is going to be a really interesting senate race. later you have former senator bob kerrey running against a tea party republican deb fisherea there. that's some of the bigger landscape. what's really important to think about is the republicans thought they had a chance to take control of the senate. it's not looking that in part becae of this issue we'be been talking about with missouri, indiana but then also some of these other interesting races like in massachusetts. >> brown: does that sounright so you? >> i think that's exactly right. think think the republicans looked like they had a chance to win three or four senate seats. the republican would need four

to take over the senate. it looks ifier. the retirement of moderate republican olympia snow in mane. scott brown's problems in massachusetts. now republican problems in indiana. they're still going to pick up some seats. nebraska is a good opportunity. north dakota is a good opportundy. montana might be a good opportunity but plus three or four looks difficult. >> brown: the estion for conthol looks difficult. >> exactly. brown: thank you both so much. back to you, judy. >> woodruff: the nighcois young ani we're waiting for all these returns to come in on the presidential race and on the senate races. and other races we're going to be following. througho the night hari sreenivasan is going to be using the newshour's digital map center to help you understand how to read some of these returns. he's tlso going to be talking about the results with public media reporters in key battle ground states. >> sreenivasan: virginia is a state we've been talking a lot about today. a key battle ground that both the candidates have been aggressively fighting. joining me now to take a deeper dive from whro, aour public media partouer kathy lewis.

thanks for being with us. >> you're welcome. tood to talk with you again. >> sreenivasan: the polls were incredibly long in arlington and probably in other parts of the state too. what are you hearing and focused on tonight. >> well, they were very long and in fact surprisingly some election officials are reporting actually larger turnouthan in 2008. that's very interesting. there were indeed long delays northern virginia. prince william and some of the counties up there. also in chesapeake and virginia beach there were delays of up to five hours. much of the state going very much as it was anticipated toh do. you about delays of up to three to four hours in some of those areas of the state where the turnout was just tremendous. >> sreenivasan: kathy, the folks at home can use our digital map center and take a look at virginia. when they look at the 2008 presidential results they see it's not just one sta .. it's almost like a couple of different states. you've got these corners, for example, around for noak that went blue for obama up around the d.c. area around alexandria fairfax county for obama n the

southwest corner a completely different story. >> right. indeed it is. it's reflective i think of what's happened in this commonwealth ove a number of years now. certainly the rural sections ofa the commonwealth tended to go republican. president obama's effort was really concentrated in that urban crescent which extends from northern virginia down through richmond and then east to the hampton roads area, norfolk, virginia bach, williamsburg, that region. and there were some very logical reasons for that. those are the population centrs of the state as well certainly here in hampton roads it's in the city of norfolke it's been a diverse popupu.oni almoston evenly split between caucasians and african-americans so that urban crescent i think was a large part of the obama strategy in 2008. it remains so this time around as well. >> sreenivasan: also taking a look at a couple of other maps we've got. we've got a population density echoing exactly what you were saying. we have one about income distribution. you see the same crescent sewems

to factor in again upround louden county. the average income is $115,000. very close to washington d.c. in the southwest in dickinson county $29,000. >> it's a tremendousp disparity. so much of those jobs in that urban crescent are defense-related. that's been a particular issue in this campaign. as this state looks to what may happen after the election with regard to see questions traition of those automaticnd indiscriminate cuts that will take place in january 2 if the spending plan is not developed. here's a lot of attention, a lot of focus on what may happen after see questions traition. that will be deeply interestinge to those people who are making that kind of money because so much of that is oriented around the defense industry. >> sreenivasan: kathy lewis, thanks so much for your time. >> thank you. ifill: now let's go to 30,000 feet on this evening from

presidential historians and newshour regulars michael beschloss and richard norton smith. you know, michael, i have heard time and time again throughout this campaign that this has been a campaign about small things. the bi picture was missing. is that really something that w just longed for and imagine it used to be is that real? >> i think it is real because in the old days the way that you would experience a candidate would be basically long speeches on central issues. for instance, williams jennings bryant and the cross of gold speech. most people would read it in the newspaper. the point is if that you were reading the candidates' words in a newspaper as opposed to seeing him oned tv for 30on seconds ita very different way of approaching the people. >> woodruff: same question to you, richard. what about that? >> i think michael is right. i also think though there are pfferent kinds of elections. there are confirming elections. you think of ike being re-elected in '56 or bill

clinton more recently in '96. those were elections that almost never realy seemed to get out of the starting gate. r the outcome i essentially baked into the cake in large part because people are satisfied with the status co- particularle economic lif so what is there to debate? >> on the other hand there arey lech like 1968, 1980 when there's great turmoil in the country, when the country is deeply polarized. some of the very things we've been decrying in a sense. i supposecothe silver lining is it providesil no shortage of substantive issues to divide the country and to discuss. >> woodruff: what abt... i was just listeningt. to the conversation that hari was having with the reporter in virginia about see questions traition. about the fear that defense spending may be cut. this is actually something that is the subject of huge discussion but as we're you all have just indicating it's not

something that has been part of the conversation in this campaign. >> that's exactly right. it does tend to get trivial. given the number of big issues this year, foreign and domestic, i don't need to list them for anyone, it's almost as if you're going back to the election of 1940 when wendell willkey was opposing f.d.r. with very different views of what we do against hitler in europe. you find the campaign was on a trivial issue. the test of a campaign is how much it really engages the kind of decisions, the kind of issues it will face the next president. i think we've gotten from both candidates about what is going to happen in the next four years. >> ifill: isn't the test of a campaign the candidates and the kind of leadership they exert not only what they would be as president but how they are as campaigners? >> sure. but they're also going to do oat works. the fact of the matter is we're, you know, none of this exists in a vacuum. we're in a culture where marketing is often king and it

is felt... i can't remember a campaign that has felt, you know, more about marketing than about substance. >> not only that you, know wendell wilke did not have to raise a billion dollars and raise it in the fall campaign. that completely transforms what this campaign is. >> ifill: but you say... do you agree that this is as big a marketing campaign as you have ever seen in hiory? >> well, a billion dollars is an awful lot to spend. it's slightly lss than some companies spenss on laundry soa, for instance, but in the history of presidential politics look at 1972. richard nixon raised $60 million. that was a watergate campaign. people said essentially never again should we allow a presidential candidate to raise that kind of money because m it leads to places that are not good. >> when i say marketing, i'm not talking just about the saturation level of paid advertising. the fact of the matter is criticism has been lodgedded against both parties, and both

candidates for conducting a campaign that has been amazingly content free in many ways. ironically at a time when there probably is a consensus in the country that we do confront immense challenges, larger than the defense budget in virginia.s >> odruff: don't we think that so much of that has to do with sort of the structure of modern campaigns that there are the consultants and there's the polling. it's now betweod... what the consultants are tellih the candidates to do anel what th're reading in the polls by the minute they end up designing a campaign that is microtargeting rather than thinking about these... >> it's microtargeting but it's also two candidates who think it's in their inter'rt not to tell you too much about what is going to happen during the next for years if they're elected especially because people may not like that. it's almost like 1968. richard nin campaigned suggesting that he had some kind of a plan for peace in vietnam that he c nuldn't talk about.

the result was, if you look atul the polling, the numbers after the 1968 elecon, a lot of people voted on for nixon because they thought this he would end the vietnam war faster than humphrey. exactly the opposite. one reason why people were so angry those next three yeps. >> one other huge factor that we have not mentiod, and that is the media. and thed, 24/7 news cycle. to lots of people this campaign frankly particularly the romney campaign sometimes has had the feel that it's more about winning each day's news cycle, taking the twist and the narrative and turning it to their advantage than providing any kind of over-arching, comprehensive strigz, or agenda that would be oneemented as a result of candidate's election. >> woodruff: and that's why we're so glad to have the two of you to bring itinto historicalin

perspective. >> we're glad to be here. >> woodan: thodkyou,: both. u, you bet. 7:30odruff: it is eastern, polls have closed in three more states, and soar the associated press has called winnerwinners in kentucky and v. they have now pjerscted-- we're waiting for another state. we know, gwen, they called-- we know they've-- there is a call, west virginia, for mitt romney. not a surprise. that's a state that went for john mccain four years ago. so now, mitt romney has been projected to win three states, indiana, west virginia, and kentucky. >> ifill: and west virginia, of course, was last won by a democrat eons ago and that was probably john kennedy. its been a long time since west vi inia was a democratic state. and bill clinton won west virginia, that's right, mark. >> and jimmy carter won itn 1980. >> ifill: i'm completely wrong. >> woodruff: we have plenty of

time to get it straight. just to check in with mark and david quickly, no surprises from what we've seen. these are all whats expected. >> you're calling it this early in the tight it's a safe state for somebody. oe are beginning to>> see some indications. todayhe last few days and the president's job approval is 49, 5 that's i good sign for the president. mark and i talked about this on the "newshour." that's a very good predictor how a president is going to do. to be around 49 is where george w. bush was in 2004. that's a pretty good sign gleen let's see how jeff brown and his cohorts break this down. >> brown: i'm with stu and christina. one of the things we look at is exit pollses. we have acce to the information. i want to look at one of the national results weacaw, christina, about the economy. not a surprise what's on people's mind. >> right, we saw that this was driving people to the polls, all election year, really, during the primary campaign.

it's been driving people with their feelings and how they feel bout both presidential candidates, and what it's saying is basically voters are concerned about this. they're concerned about the direction of the company exprvetion right now mitt romney is faring a lile bit bettertt being's candidate who is looked at as being better able to handle economic measures. however, there is a measure in the early exit polls that we took a look at showing that voters felt that barackbama better understood their problems, more related to them. and that's issue that really goes oo how he ran his campaign. the president's team reallimented to paint mitt romney as someone who was a candioote for the rich and the wealthy and thor he would h tlp em. and there are also voters favor raising taxes on the wealthy. that's what some of the early exit polls are suggesting to us, one of the issues driving them to the polls. >> brown: one of the states that just closed, the, is it uwas north carolina. there we were talking earlier about house races and 3 thematically helps us think of the night. >> it's an interesting state.

because the republicans redrew north carolina's congressional district. the democrats had been drawing the state interest man years. even though there is a democtic governor, it isov one of the few states where the governor has no roles in o redistricting. the republicans were able to drawt lineshe way they wanted and dramatically redrew districts, and larry kissel who represented the charlotte area and east of charlotthe has a new district, outsidef mech len berg, charlotte, more republican. in the western part of the state, a moderate and democrat, and found his district as the most republican district in the state. mike entire in the eastern part of the state. a conservative democrat with a conservative demenratic district uporadistrict. his district was redrawn. mcentire has a chance to survive and it's not clear he will. this is a goo examle how redistricting is having impact

and an example of mao democratss in conrvative districts are having trouble in a c year of vy partisan voting yith barack obama having trouble in theiri districts at the top of the ticket. >> brown: what do you s in north carolina? >> i stu is absolutely right. the democrats need a net of 25 seats to regain control of that chamber and when you think they could lose a nd full of seats in north carolina, some of the other southern states where the conservative districts -- kentucky is another one we're watching-- and that's an area where ey have to win more seats to be able to regain control. it's not looking all that great for them. another thing important to poinr out with redistricting, these are gains the republicans have been able to craft that are long lasting. everyev decade,ns and particularly when you have republicans in control of the state legislature, if they're able to do that, they can draw d lines in their favor. you've seen the democrats use it to their advantage in states like illinois. california is a whole different story where you have an independent commission drawing the lines there. it really will dramatically she control of congress. >> i was simply going to make

the point about illinois. the viewers don't think it's only the republicans who are redrawing districts. democrats did the exact same thing in illinois, and we'll see what the results are. sometimes they draw districts expecting a certain outcome and the voters srprise them. >> brown: while we're talking about the how, because earlier we talked about the senate in aw kind of bigger picture. stu, remind us about the house situation. 435 seats are up in the house but not all 435 are competitive. only about 70 or so are really worth watching for the chance of one party to steal a seat from the other party. the democrats need 25 seats in order toigate majority and presumably reinstall california, nancy pelosi as speaker beor as she once was. that seems unlikely. the democrats have said we have enough seats in play, and when we get out west, california, washington, nevada, something good could happen for them. but it's going to be hard for the democrats to take over the

house. >> brown: there a particul one or two you want to keep your eye on especially tonight? >> a lot of the demographic data we're looking atic democratshave area where's they can gain, perhaps later on down the line, arizona, texas, as sturks mentioned, florida is another one, wherehe democrats are look at making long-lastinge gains. they're making new seats. california is another one we will be atching. what is the bigger picture when it comes to the type of members ofat ngress?s? are these peopl extreme on one part or the other? the way the lines are drawn that can happen. if you draw a district with metreme democrat or republican, you can end up with extremestr n congress. >> woodruff: mark, you were telling me you were off the set talking to somebody, picking up some information about howthe vote is coming in. >> the turnout right now that what tino voters are voting at the levels that the obama people

needed, if not better than, and young voters are turning out in surprise-- that was a big concern, a major question mark, remaina question mark. but in 2008, because of the excitement generated by barackes obama's candidacy, voters under the age of 30 represented a larger percentage of the electorate than did voters over the age of 65. >> woodruff: which a lot of people did not realize. >> that's right. in 2010, voters over t ag of 65, represented twice as large a percentage of the electorate as voters under 30. the question is was it going to be more hike-- david asked earlier-- 2010 or 2008. and right now, the turnout among younger voters has been a lot better than 2010. >> ifill: one of the great frustrations of some republic ns is george w. bush did fairliy well-- 44% or something likebl that-- among latinos and they have been losing that and they hoped to get at least 40%. they never thought they'd beat or close the gap substantially

with president obama among latino voters. but if they don't hit the 40% mark, how tough is that? >> they're not getting 40%. if the polls are at all to be believed they'll be luck tow get 30%. they have fallen off in the last cycles and c it should be talked, asian americans, and they're going 68%, 70% teams. >> ifill: why? >> i would say partly it's the immigration issue. but i generally think-- and this is going to be a long debate for the republican party over the next few years-- it's not only about immigration. it's about world vw. the republicans have got themselves into a much more fdividualiic, frankly old scotts irish representing the old protestant white part of the country, which i much more individualistic, where the message is it's personal responsibility. you do it on your own. get government off your back. i don't think that's as appealing an image to people who come from cultures more community oriented. it includes jews, it includes

catholics and latino groups and asian-americans. >> woodruff: but the last president, george w. bush thought about the latinono vote, coming from texas. he knew the importance of the latino vote. i remember talking to ken melman, the chairman of the republican party. it was a big priority for him. so whas happened? >> well, george w w. bush tried mightily, and john mccain did as well, but it was t basasof the republican party. and that's veof much what v've seen. the base of the republican party is quite nativist and quite anti-immigrant. that became a dominant theme in the campaign of 2008. i'll just add this. rearlier richard norton smith, a great historian,ea mentioned california and how it had gone democratic. between world war ii and 1992, california voted for a democrat for president once. lyndon johnson. but something happened. could pete wilsonnd

proposition 187 which was a restrictive, punitive measure directed at immigrants in califondia what i time whenia immigrants were exploding in california. now california, republicans are reduced to a white party and an increasingly less white state. >> if you take it election after election, and as the white share falls, as the minority share rises, republicans are basically-- just starting out the election-- are losing 1.7% of theote every four yevers. it's going down. they have to work a lot harder and they have no margin of er r. >> ifill: let me turn this on its head. is it a bigger problem for president obama to not be able to win white voters? >> it is definitely a problem. the losing of the white vote is a problem. the losing the white working class is the classic roblem foss the democratic party. ithink john kerry lost white working voters by 27%.

president obama will probably be back down this time.th the difference is the white share of the electorate is shrinking, and the minority share is growing. >> i'd just add one other thing, and that is if you look at the obama campaign this year, ther only message they really had to white working class voters was the auto bailout. that was it. it idn't do events. did a lot of women events, a lot of latino events. >> ifill: the middle class tax cut wasn't considered ? >> . >> i would say the heavy hit on sdnacial of social issues, reproductive rights, i think drove away the socially conservaves. >> wooeruff: right now we have ray suarez joining w us in chicago, very close to where the obama folks are gathering. ray. >> sreenivasan.>> suarez: i'm jn lebolt.

there has been so much speculation about the shape of the electorate. who would turn out to vote? you had modeled this, rolled out your election day plans. now that there have been key closures how does it scwhrook it looks a lot more like 2008 than 2010. this could be t most diverse electorate. there might be more african american voters in the state of virginia who turned out this time around than last time. we're on track to have the most diverse electorate of allo time, which is good for the president. >> suarez: you have been taking a look at certain geographic spots on the map morl closely than others. you like what you see? >> absolutely. let me take you through a few of them. first of all, areas where there are a lot of young voters -- deign county, wisconsin, where the university of wisconsin madison is, very high turnout, very long lines around ohio state university today. it looks like turnout in charlottesville, where the university of virginia is, will be up from 2008.

we like those reports. long lines in south florida. long lines in northern virginia today. those are democratic strongholds. and it looks like cuyahoga county in ohio is on track to be where it was in 2008. we have record turout in lucus county, ohio, where there are a lot of auto workers right around toledo. >> suarez: long lines coulou tell a campaign a lot but it could also mean some people give up and go home. what are you hearing futom the field about problems in casting a vote? >> sometimes these things get blown out of proportion. there weren't any big surprises today. there certainly were long lines but we fiewnd our supporters had fun with it. they brought some music. they brought some food. they know if they stay in line the vote will count at the end of the day. we wereth prepared for any p contingencies. any contingencies could continue to happen but o message is ifut the polls have closed and you're in line, wait in line. your vote will count as long as you got there by the time the vote cloads.

>> wern connecticut, long island, the five boroughs of new york, theersey shore-- places hit hard h by super storm sandy, did that spress turnout? >> we'll see what the final numbers say at the end of the day. we know both the states and municipalities took every step they could to make sureprheir voters' votes would count. the the state of new jersey even allowed you to e-mail youra ballot in. all the states adapted. hopefully it didn't depress turnout put we haven't seen the final numbers. >> suarez: in 20 minutes there will be another round of closing. what will you and the campaig be looking at in particular? thee're taking a look state of virginia and florida, which look like a couple of the closest states on the map. those states could go late into the night. there's no question there are still folks voting in line in south florida who have been there for a while. so i think that will take time to close out. new hampshire, voting continues for a little while more. and then i assumee allize will rn to ohio and the midwest.

>> suarez: ben lebolt from the obama campaign. thank you. >> ifill: we can tell you you the associated press projected a winner in ree states, kentucky, vermont, and virginia. kentucky, of course, for mitt romney, who we see-- i'm going to fix that in a moment. i said virginia and i meant west virginia. vermont for presidentbama. and, ofba course, in west virginia, not virginia, we're waiting on the edge of our seats to see what happens in virginia-- for mitt romney. so that's very early tonight. the two networks, however, have called winners in south carolina, and in indiana. and that takes to us margaret warn who are is at romney headquarters in boston with a guest. margaret? warner: yes, i am, gwen, and i'm here with william weld, ill weld, who was governor of massachusetts here from 1991 to '97. governor weld, thank you for joining us. how do you think it looks tonight? >> it's a pleasure to be back in boston. i think it looks very good for m.i.t. i think right along it has

looked that way. i think the feing in the inmpaign is we'll takemp florid, north carolina, and virginia, thank you very much, and go on from there. >> warner: what is it you're counting on? >> myself, i think it comes down to people in the booth. and what they're going to reflect on when they go in there. without casting aspersions in any direction i think it's easy for people to conclude in the booth they don't want w four moe years of what they've had. >> warner: what impact do the think hurricane sandy has had on mitt romney? >> it's difficult to say. certainly, i've been living in new york. it was a big-- a big, powerful factor there. >> warner: now, there is also a very exciting and important senate race here. you have the republican incumbent, senator scott brown, who assumed teddy kennedy's seat, won that six years ago. running against elizabeth warren, consumer activist and

advocate. how do you think that looks? >> i think scott brown is the tremendous thoroughbred. he's right down the middle. we need more of him in washington. people who will reach croog the aisle and get things done. so i ink he should swin that race. >> warner: he has run as someone who wants to reach across the aisle-- >> he's absolutely done it. >> warner: then why is he having such a hard time? >> i'm not sure he's having a hard time. massachusetts say difficult state, as i know, on both side of the football. but the fact that, you know, he's even or a little up or a little down is a great testament to his quality as a candidate. warner: what do you think-- what direction downing the republican party-- this is too broad a question for one minute-- but needs to o after this election? mitt romney win or lose, in terms of broadening its appeal, whether it's to hispanics, whether it's

to women, single women. you were a major advocate of a centrist republican. >> i'm kind ofri social liberal. i'm waout there on thoseo issues. it goes beyond abortion and gay rights. it extends to issues like immigration where i think we have to remember we're a melting pot. and i know a lot of senior republicans in this country who, off the record, agree. you just have to get past the politics of it. certainly taking immigration is one issue. that's one place where we have to go and change the tone from the national republican party or we can forget a lot of bigim states. >> warner: former governor bill weld, thank you so much. >> thank you, margaret. >> warner: back to you. >> woodruff: thanks, margaret. interesting conversation. finally, we want to bring you the nonelection news of this day. voting posts special challenges for the storm-ravaged sections of the northeast. thousands of people crowded makeshift pollin places.ll

>> suarez: on hard-hit staten island, generators could be heard generators intense this morning. >> i was going to vote. >> new york governor andrew cuomo issued an executive order on monday allowing diilaced voters to used any polling station if they presented an affidavit. that touched off confusion at numerous pollg places but cuomo urged people not to be discouraged. >> some of the polling places had issues with electricity, generators, et cetera, but it is important that we vote. it's important that the systemg works. this is an important election. this is a critical election, i believe. >> in new jersey, mobile stations like this one tried to reach those hocould not vote at their usual polling sites. >> we've been working very diligently yesterday and today, to make sure that they had some form of way to vote. actually thought we were going to have a chance.

cause we're quite a distance away from our homes in the shelter. and we never thought that we'd have a chance to be able to vote. and all of us-- as you can see-- we're very happy that we do have this opportunity to vote. to make sure that we are done right by. >> new jersey voters were also allowed to cast ballots by e-mail or fax, and governor chris christie said that means anyone who wants to vote can vote. >> the only people who should be applying for ballots by-mail are peopleho have beenh displaced from their homes. because of the storm. if you haven't been displaced from your home because of the storm, get your butt up and go vote at your polling place. is is not a convenience thing. >> reporter: christie and other officials had their eyes on new difficulties as well in the form of a nor'easter, due ti strike tomorrow. >> we're going to take a step back. i don't think there's any way we won't given what the forecast is. so everybody's got to kind of dial-- it back and not get all

worked up because you lose power again. nothing we can do to stoot the storms. >> reporter: the new storm up here weaker than first feared. but it was still expected to hit at a time when thousand of people are not back in their homes. >> i know the cold weather's coming. and we are concerned about that. but in-- there's no way we can live here-- in the house at this timel now. >> back in new york city, mayor bloomberg warned even mild flooding from the approaching storm could pro greater dangers than normal. >> places that didn't before have a problem with two and a half to four and a half-feet surge might very well this time. >> meanwerle, shortages of gasoline continue. although, officials said they were graduallyle easing. >> woodruff: that was was of harry srveensan. the we have the latest sign of a recovery.

the increase was the largest since july 2006. and election day found wall reetnia smood tore buy. >> in iraq, 33 people died in a suicide car bombing north of baghdad. nearly 60 others were wounded. the attacker blew up his vehicle near an iraqi military base. most of the victims were iraqiir soldiers. there was no immediate claim of responsibility. and the classical composer and pulitzer prize winner elliot carterdied on monday at his home in new york city. carter was knownte for his rhythmically complicated works using american and european modernist traditions. the string quartets he composed have been called the most

difficult ever conceived. elliot indicator was 103 years old. >> ifill: for those of you seek a two-screen experience, you can also follow us tonight on our multichannel live stream where you can find up-to-the-minute results on our interactive map center, a live election blog, speeches from winners and losers tonight and a lot more. >> woodruff: just to recap again, the associated press hasa called kentucky and west virginia for mitt romney. and vermont for president obama. two networks have called south carolina and indiana for mitt romney. all of those are calls that were expected. and that's the "newshour" for tonight. i'm judy woodruff. >> ifill: and i'm gwen ifill. stay tuned for more in-depth analysis and the latest election results on the pbsde election leecial which begins at 8:00wh eastern time. :0

major funding for the pbs newshour has been provided by: b c2ng o econo for 160 c2 f, t eine th connectc2 b >> muc is a ursal langua, t when i was i ccident i was worried tc2 ealth care systeoke a laguage l its ow with uted th care, i got lp tt fit my life,c2 ormation on my p, connectioto doctors wmatiet where i'from, tools to estimate wt my ce may cot. i never miss t. >> wee more tn 78,0 people looking out for more than 70 million americans. w that's health in numbers. united health care.

>> intel. sponsors of tomorrow. >> and by the alfred p. sloan foundation. supporting science, technology, and improved economic performance and financial literacy in the 21st century. and with the ongoing support of these institutions and foundations. and... this program was made possible by the corporation for public broadcasting. and by contributionso your pbs station from viewers like you. thank you.o captioning sponsored by macneil/lehrer productions captioned by cedia ac ga roup at wgbh access.wgbh.org t